Is a recession Coming?

Monday, March 16, 2020

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   The current crash in global stock markets has unnerved and shaken even the most patient of all, who until a fortnight ago were sitting on high confidence.  



   The bulls had taken for granted that the only way for the markets is to move upwards.  With benchmark indices now plummetting a little over 20% we are in bear market territory. 



   The bigger question staring at economists and traders alike is whether a recession is on the way.  Japan's economic numbers were alarming enough. China too isn't in great shape either. 



   It is assumed that the trigger of this crash- a virus originating in China could potentially impede profitability of businesses worldwide and hence lowering economic output. Strictly speaking, consumer spending has been hit hard by the pandemic. 



   The stock market being a forward-looking animal, at present is mirroring the prices of the worst that is to come our way. In a way it is a comforting feeling that the markets won't decline much from hereon, at least going by historical trends. 



    On the recession front, what goes in the US shall dictate the action plan for other economies. The giant that is the US is still chugging along nicely albeit with temporary hiccups.   



   The world certainly is a different place than it was in 2008. 


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